Managing Project Risk and Uncertainty

Rigorously grounded conceptually but developed to meet practical concerns, this book underpins and extends the scope and power of current approaches to the management of risk and uncertainty in projects and related operational and strategic management decision making. Ten tales, based on real cases, explore a range of project related problems, including: cost estimation, pricing competitive bids, risk allocation and incentive contract design, evaluation of threats and opportunities, buffer management in a supply chain, investment appraisal, portfolio management, and strategy formulation. Each tale provides practical guidance on achieving effective and efficient uncertainty management through simple analysis and discussion of emergent issues. Using a 'constructively simple' approach to model building and the associated decision support processes, the authors show the reader how to take the guesswork out of managing risk and uncertainty. Keeping formal analysis simple, without being